DAILY VIEW
PAIR Trend Target Spot
USD/TRY = 1.824 1.8243
USD/ILS = 3.880 3.8801
USD/ZAR = 8.424 8.4235
USD/RUB UP 33.000 32.5869
EUR/PLN DOWN 4.310 4.3170
EUR/CZK UP 25.850 25.5300
EUR/HUF = 297.520 297.5200
USD/MXN UP 14.300 14.0336
USD/BRL UP 2.100 2.0727
USD/CNY = 6.371 6.3705
USD/INR UP 56.000 55.8575
USD/SGD = 1.284 1.2835
TURKEY
Turkish Central Bank Gross fx reserves rise to $79.99 bln from
$78.23 bln a week earlier. No major figure today in Turkey. USD/TRY
should stay in range ahead of Greek election. Play the range
1.8150-1.8350 for today. Support 1.8150, 1.8000 Resistance 1.8250,
1.8400.
ISRAEL
Another quiet day with the support area (3.86) holding well . We
continue to favor the upside but do not expect majors move today. Play
the range 3.8780/3.8880
SOUT AFRICA
Retail trade sales got off to a disappointing start in Q2, slowing
to a lower-than-expected 1.0% y/y in April after rising 6.8% in March.
Disappointing SA retail sales data was not conducive to further ZAR
short covering, given that such an outcome does not bode well for SA?s
overall economic recovery. However, the lack of reaction by the local
unit shows how ZAR participants remain predominately preoccupied with
offshore developments. The Rand traded within the 8.30-8.45 range we
talked about yesterday and we should play again the range today as
investors and speculators are squaring their positions ahead of this
weekend's Greek elections. Support 8.3000, 8.2100 Resistance 8.4500,
8.5200
RUSSIA
Local sellers drove the market back to Friday's closing levels.
RUB has retraced 1% and looks like best performer on the street this
morning. 33.00-32.95 is a strong resistance for now and on the
downside 29.35 will act as a support. Today we're waiting for two
important figures, first one annual GDP last one printed at 4.90% and
second one weekly CPI year-to-date, prior at 2.40%.
POLAND
Market is consolidating ahead of Greek election this week-end.
EURPLN is trading around the 200 DMA which stands at 4.31 the figure,
we didn't get the opportunity yesterday to sell above 4.4000 however
we still favour to be long zloty. Yesterday CPI printed at 3.6% which
was forecasted at 3.80% y/y. No major figure today.
HUNGARY
EURHUF is still trading in a tight range. Yesterday core CPI
printed at 5.30% y/y last one was at 5.10%, no major moves on release.
On the technical side, double bottom at 293 the figure should act as a
strong support. First resistance stands at 310 and then 315. On the
volatility space, front curve looks well supported with Greek
election. No major figure today.
CZECK REP.
No major figure today. The Koruna remains under the influence of
the eurozone situation and EURCZK pair should find support ahead of
25.40 today. We are still running a long euro position and will add at
25.42 for a bounce to our 25.85 target.
MEXICO
No major figure today in Mexico. Yesterday was rather a calm day
with $/Mex traded in a narrow range between 13.94 and 14.0450. We
stick to our idea to buy a dip at 13.85 with a close stop at 13.78 and
a target at 14.30.
BRAZİL
USDBRL is and remains well bid for now. At those levels
2.0700-2.1000 BCB is more likely than not to intervene again to
contain BRL depreciation and its potential inflation pass-through
effects. Today April retail sales will be released we expect a
deceleration in real growth in retail sales to 7% Y/Y which will be
the lowest pace since October 2011.
CHINA
The fixing was again lower at 6.3191. The market remains cautious
about the month end as there is a high risk that banks lend
aggresively to meet half-year loan quotas, particulary in light of
strong "window guidance" from the government. This would translate
into an increase in broader money supply and hence higher reserve
requirements for the banking system as a whole. The reserve ratio
could drop to 1.5% in June in the absence of another RRR cut.
INDIA
USDINR opened weak, rising to 55.77. Inflation came out close to
market expectation at 7,55% WPI for May (7,5%). Revision of March WPI
to 7.69% from 6,89% earlier. India?s 10-year bond yields rises 3 bps
to 8.28% and INR unchanged at 55.77.
SINGAPORE
The USDSGD is poised to remain in its range for now. We have a
first resistance at 1.2850 followed by key resistance at 1.2975 and
support at 1.2750 and 1.2700. We should see the SGD confined in this 3
figures range until the Monday.
******
Burada yer alan yatırım bilgi, yorum ve tavsiyeler yatırım
danışmanlığı kapsamında değildir. Yatırım danışmanlığı hizmeti,
aracı kurumlar, portföy yönetim şirketleri, mevduat kabul etmeyen
bankalar ile müşteri arasında imzalanacak yatırım danışmanlığı
sözleşmesi çerçevesinde sunulmaktadır. Burada yer alan yorum ve
tavsiyeler, yorum ve tavsiyede bulunanların kişisel görüşlerine
dayanmaktadır. Bu görüşler mali durumunuz ile risk getiri
tercihlerinize uygun olmayabilir. Bu nedenle, sadece burada yer
alan bilgilere dayanılarak yatırım kararı verilmesi beklentilerinize
uygun sonuçlar doğurmayabilir.
*******
Foreks Haber Merkezi (
[email protected] )
http://www.foreks.com
http://twitter.com/#!/ForeksTurkey